Perspectiva económica: Martínez-Solanas

More than two months have passed since the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on March 10, with notable delay, that Covid-19 had spread and the dangerous pandemic required strict sanitary measures.

After more than two months of strict economic shutdowns in the United States, Europe and other countries, the world is in a deep economic recession (with the exception of China, which has become a global source and supplier of medicines and other essential products). And the sudden stoppage of almost all production activities for such a long time threatens to lead to a world economic depression similar to or even worse than that of 1929.

Therefore, I very much doubt that the strict closure of the economic activities during such a long time was justified or that it is justified to extend it even further. An economic depression like the one suffered on the last century can lead to millions of deaths caused by suicide, starvation, lack of sufficient resources to face essential health care expenses and a sharp deterioration of the levels of well being enjoyed by most countries until now. Economist Brian Wesbury predicted that keeping the US economy closed until Easter would cost the economy 3% of its capacity; until the end of April, 8%; and until the end of May, 15%. He was short in his predictions; that is exactly the contraction the US has already suffered by early May – three weeks before it was foreseen! And US unemployment rates rose from an all time low in January (just above 3%) to 16% as of today, the highest level since the Great Depression.

Indeed, this pandemic, and the experimental attempts to mitigate and control it, have created a series of challenges and debates that go beyond epidemiology and medicine. Once, and again, and again ... some authoritative person is in favor of some policy or solution and the next hour some other expert is rejecting that course of action. Simply put, the world (except China) was not prepared for this pandemic. The world lacked testing kits, masks, surgical gloves, ventilators and other required health care items (not counting the fact that stopping production has caused shortages in practically all consumer goods) and it is desperate trying to get them from China or is trying to introduce the necessary reforms in many factories and industries to produce them in sufficient quantities to face the crisis. But these actions take too long and the damage is already done.

To be sure, the pandemic is not the cause of all the confusion surrounding the relationship between morality, economics, and the advance of reliable scientific knowledge pertaining to how we best meet societies' needs. The situation has been grossly politicized, especially in the United States and in some European countries. When had it been experienced in a democratic country that the political opposition did not close ranks with the President or the Prime Minister in such times of tribulation? That is exactly what is happening. It is pitiful and outrageous, as if the crisis was an instrument to achieve more power and take it away from those in government who are trying to confront it.

The world is recently finding that there were cases of Covid-19 in China at least since November 2019 or perhaps even earlier. However, no case was officially reported in China until December 8, and it was not until December 31 that the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported a cluster of cases of "pneumonia" in that city of Hubei Province.

Next day, on the 1st of January, the World Health Organization (WHO) set up an Incident Management Support Team for dealing with the outbreak and reported four days later that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases –with no deaths– in Wuhan. Along the following days, WHO issued advice on how to detect, test and manage such potential cases of pneumonia, relying on Chinese official sources and following their advice.

WHO's Director General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called several press conferences during the following weeks insisting that there was no pandemic and asserting that the outbreak was under control with proper prophylactic measures. In the meantime, he traveled to Beijing on January 28 to meet China’s leadership and to offer technical and scientific assistance.

On January 30, WHO reported that human-to-human transmission was limited, according to Chinese sources. However, a WHO's situation report reported on the same day 7818 total confirmed cases worldwide, with the majority of these in China, and 82 cases reported in 18 countries outside China.

Se ha acusado de racista al Presidente Trump por referirse al Covid-19 como "the China's virus", sin tener en cuenta que, en realidad, las epidemias de influenza y otras semejantes suelen identificarse siempre con el país del que procede la contaminación inicial. Es un hecho que este virus se originó en Wuhan (a unas 400 millas al norte de Hong Kong) y que China trató de encubrir la epidemia en sus comienzos, incluso castigando al médico chino que dio la voz de alarma, el cual trágicamente murió pocos días después aquejado por esta grave enfermedad.

Además de ser el lugar de origen, su propagación se ha concentrado mayormente en dos países: Irán e Italia. Ambos están sufriendo la mayor cantidad de casos y fallecimientos en una proporción respecto a su población muy superior a la de otros países. 

Esto se debe a las estrechas relaciones comerciales de ambos países con China, mediante acuerdos y contratos que han facilitado el ingreso de cientos de miles de obreros y especialistas chinos para trabajar en proyectos realizados con la asistencia del coloso asiático, en particular los relacionados con la iniciativa china conocida como "One Belt and One Road" (OBOR).

Esta es una ingeniosa estrategia de penetración internacional disfrazada de proyectos de inversión para desarrollar la infraestructura de los países receptores. Se trata de acuerdos que China contrae con otros países con ese propósito aparente, según los cuales el país recipiente obtiene los fondos para realizar los proyectos como un empréstito concedido por China y debe contratar a empresas chinas para realizarlo o construirlo, incluyendo los suministros, partes, maquinarias, además de los obreros y especialistas mencionados en el párrafo anterior.

AUMENTO DE LA DEUDA NACIONAL
DE EE.UU. DESDE 2/10/2001
2/10/2020 – 23,274,537,000,000 - hoy
2/10/2017 – 19,945,308,000,000 - Trump ↑
2/10/2009 – 10,626,850,000,000 - Obama ↑
2/10/2001 – 6,067,032,000,000 - Bush ↑

Aunque se ha frenado ligeramente el aumento de la deuda nacional de Estados Unidos durante la Administración Trump, sigue aumentado a una velocidad que es insostenible a largo plazo, pese a los intentos del Presidente por cumplir con su promesa de reducir gastos y promover mayores ingresos.

Justo es reconocer que el presupuesto depende en mayor medida del Congreso y aunque el Presidente propone, el Congreso dispone.

No obstante, como vemos en las cifras del encabezamiento, el aumento de la deuda se disparó durante la Administración Bush, sobre todo por los enormes gastos ocasionados por las guerras de Iraq y Afganistán. Este fue uno de los argumentos en la campaña electoral contra el Partido Republicano en las elecciones de noviembre de 2008.