There is no realistic scenario imaginable that does not include Californians consuming at least another five billion barrels of oil before the state achieves its much touted official goal of a “clean energy future.” Here are the numbers:
In 2025, Californians consumed 484 million barrels of crude oil. To understand why another five billion barrels is the minimum remaining statewide consumption, imagine that aggressive state policies succeed in completely eliminating consumption of crude oil in California by 2045.
To achieve this goal in twenty years, consumption has to drop by 6.8 percent per year. If that sounds feasible, compare that hypothetical reduction going forward to the historical rate of decline established over the last 20 years. In 2006 Californians consumed 655 million barrels of crude oil. That rate of consumption had been remarkably consistent over the previous 20 years, i.e., 1985 consumption was 644 million barrels, 1986 consumption was 676 million barrels, and so on; California’s annual consumption was right around 650 million barrels per year all the way through to 2005. This consistency may be attributed mostly to continuously increasing automotive MPG, countered by population increase.
But as the state’s population growth slowed while automotive MPG continued to improve with the advent of hybrids and EVs, there was an impressive decline in crude oil consumption, as noted, from 655 million barrels per year in 2006 to only 484 million barrels in 2025. But here’s the reality check. That decline, significant though it was, only equated to an annual percentage decrease of 1.6 percent.
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El libro sagrado de la India, el Bhagavad Gita, comienza con el príncipe Arjuna, repleto de dudas en pleno campo de batalla. Teme verse obligado a asesinar a sus enemigos, quienes también son sus parientes, y que esa acción impía cargue su alma de pecado. En ese oscuro momento, Krishna, la suprema divinidad, le revela que está obligado a cumplir con su deber de guerrero. Gracias a ese instante de lucidez, Arjuna acepta que, por encima de sus afectos familiares, su misión es restaurar el orden político sin buscar beneficios personales.
Anoche, 14 de mayo, se celebraba en Pekin la cena de bienvenida para el presidente Trump y su comitiva ofrecida por el presidente Xi. Ambos dirigieron mensajes que se pueden interpretar como buenos augurios de una relación que, el mismo Xi, sorpresivamente afirmaba es la más importante del mundo. Trump respondía en los mismos términos positivos, pero, sin que alguien se diera cuenta, estaba iniciando un proceso histórico con el que ya ha cambiado el mundo. Tal vez por eso llegaba con toda la caballería mundial con emprendedores representado $3 trillones de dólares.

Viktor Orbán wrote the modern autocrat’s playbook: Capture 80% of the media space. Tilt the electoral system in your favour. Use state power to strengthen party power. Reward loyalists. Punish critics. Make change feel impossible.