
I’ve been thinking about a hypothesis
It is wise to distinguish between what is evident and what is assumed. What is evident is “what the camera records,” what reality presents to us. Everything else is interpretation, a hypothesis that may be true or not, but is still a guide for thinking and acting.
At this moment in Cuba in November 2025, it is evident that there is a nationwide health crisis, even if the Government has not officially declared a health emergency nor done anything significant to remedy it. We are in a health Crisis.Yet on the contrary,the government has announced the discussion of a package of measures which, if implemented, would make the life of the Cuban people much more painful and difficult. All this is in addition to the precarious situation due to food shortages, blackouts, and the collapse of the healthcare system, etc.
It is logical to ask not only why the Government appears so indifferent to the extreme suffering of our people, but also why its attitude seems aimed at making the life of the ordinary citizen even harder.
The sociologist and political scientist James C. Davies postulated that people do not usually rebel when they are at the worst point of misery, because there is resignation, fear, and lack of organization. Rebellion requires the situation to start improving for a while, in such a way that expectations of change grow and people begin to have hope for a better future.
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