Psychologists tell us that one reason we desire expert predictions is because we have a “need for closure.” That is, we want an answer to a question. Even if that answer is wrong, we find a wrong answer preferable to enduring a state of confusion and ambiguity. But, then again, if experts are almost always wrong, why should we listen to these psychological experts? Our world is complex and messy. Forecasting requires intellectual teamwork, and the gathering of evidence from different sources. Forecasting involves incalculable contingencies and variables, not just one big idea. People and environments are full of surprises.
In a now classic experiment, political scientist Philip E. Tetlock showed that the predictions made by political experts are only slightly better than a random guess, and worse than the predictions made by a statistical model. The research was summarized in his 2005 book, Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
In this early work, Professor Tetlock recruited 284 experts from a variety of fields, such as government officials, professors, journalist, and others. Many of these experts were often asked to comment, or to offer advice, on political and economic trends. Tetlock asked the experts to make roughly 28,000 predictions estimating the probability of future events over a nineteen year period from 1984 to 2003. The questions were along the lines of: Would Gorbachev be ousted in a coup? Would the United States go to war in the Persian Gulf?
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Sunday, May 26th, 2pm: I am on my way to vote in the European elections.
decide what will happen with and in the EU for the next five years.
comercialización de productos de primera necesidad.