Headlines

• Russian forces’ months of strikes have significantly degraded and damaged the Ukrainian energy grid, which is now facing significant problems even during the moratorium on Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.
• A US delegation met with lead Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev in Miami, Florida, today, January 31.

ISW, Jan. 31.– Russian forces’ months of strikes have significantly degraded and damaged the Ukrainian energy grid, which is now facing significant problems even during the moratorium on Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s power grid suffered a significant shutdown of the 400-kilowatt (kW) line between the Romanian and Moldovan power systems and the 750-kW line between western and central Ukraine on the morning of January 31.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on January 31 that the cause of the shutdown was an unspecified technological disruption, not a Russian strike. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance stated that a cyberattack did not cause the outages. The Moldovan Energy Ministry stated that “serious problems” in the Ukrainian power grid caused the 400-kW line to disconnect, and Ukrainian Energy Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko stated that existing damage to Ukraine’s energy system “complicated” the situation. Shmyhal stated that the shutdowns caused cascading power outages in the Ukrainian power grid, activated protections at Ukrainian substations, and forced operators to unload Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. 

Shmyhal reported emergency shutdowns in Kyiv City and Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv oblasts. Shmyhal reported that Ukrainian authorities restored power to critical infrastructure in Kyiv City and Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts by 1400 local time and were working to restore power to civilian consumers in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, and Odesa oblasts.

Russian strikes did not directly cause the large-scale outages, but the Russian strike campaign has already damaged and compromised the Ukrainian power grid to the point where the degraded grid is fragile and prone to significant disruptions due to technical malfunctions. Shmyhal notably reported on January 16 that Russian forces have struck every power plant in Ukraine since February 2022. The Kremlin agreed to a week-long moratorium on strikes against some Ukrainian energy infrastructure on January 29 only after inflicting severe damage to Ukraine’s national energy grid. The enduring cascading blackouts in Ukraine through January 31 during the ceasefire further demonstrate how the temporary moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession.

A US delegation met with the lead Russian negotiator and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev in Miami, Florida, on January 31. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff reported on January 31 that he, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner, and senior advisor to US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace Josh Gruenbaum met with Dmitriev in Miami. Witkoff called the talks “productive” and “constructive” but did not offer details about the discussions. The United States will meet with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Abu Dhabi on February 1, and ISW will continue to monitor for additional reports of ongoing negotiations.

Belarusian balloons illegally entered Polish airspace on the night of January 30 to 31 for the second time within 72 hours. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported that Polish military radar detected objects entering Polish airspace from Belarus overnight and that the objects were highly likely balloons. Polish authorities temporarily restricted airspace over Podlaskie Voivodeship (along Poland’s eastern border with Belarus) in response. Belarusian balloons also entered Polish airspace on the night of January 28 to 29 and have frequently violated Polish and Lithuanian airspace since October 2025.

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