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Economic Perspective: Doug Casey

Swap Lines, Secret Bailouts, and the Weaponization of the Dollar

Written by Doug Casey ** on 18 June 2026. Posted in Economic Perspective: Doug Casey.

First, we should define what a swap line is. It basically amounts to the US giving a foreign country X amount of currency in dollars, and the other country paying for it by giving the US the same amount in their currency. For decades, US dollar swap lines were mostly reserved for major allies and core financial centers around the world.

It’s a problem, however, with countries whose currencies have no value outside of their boundaries. A country that gets a swap line from the US is trading its paper for liquid and fungible dollars. The US may then get stuck with UAE dirhams or Argentine pesos. It’s trading real money for play money, Monopoly money.

In the case of Argentina, that swap line may never be repaid. The US might wind up being stuck with a bunch of worthless Argentine pesos.

When the US gives a foreign country a swap line, it basically creates those dollars out of nothing. They enter the banking system and debase the dollar. Doing so gives the US some leverage over a country that takes the swap.

But it's a pretty expensive way of getting leverage.

  • United States
  • Argentina
  • US Dollar
  • swap line

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INCOME TAX — Slightly Up From Slavery

Written by Doug Casey ** on 04 June 2026. Posted in Economic Perspective: Doug Casey.

To eliminate misunderstanding as to what taxes are, it is helpful to define the word "theft." One good definition is "the wrongful taking and carrying away of the personal goods of another." The definition does not go on to say, "unless you're the government."

There is no difference, in principle, between the State taking property and a street gang doing so, except that the State's theft is "legal" and its agents are immune from prosecution. Many people do not accept that analogy, because the government is widely viewed as being of, for, and by the people, even though it's also acknowledged as acting badly from time to time.

Suppose a mugger demanded your wallet, perhaps because he needed money to buy a new car and threatened you with violence if you weren't forthcoming. Everyone would call that a criminal act. Suppose, however, the mugger said he wanted the money to buy himself food. Would it still be theft? Suppose now that he said he wanted your wallet to feed another hungry person, not himself. Would it still be theft?

Now let's suppose that this mugger convinces most of his friends that it's okay for him to relieve you of your wallet. Would it still be theft? What if he convinces a majority of citizens? Principles stand on their own. Even if a criminal act is committed for a good purpose, or with the complicity of bystanders, (even if those people call themselves the government), it is still an act of criminal aggression.

  • United States
  • income tax

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The Energy Shock is spreading into the US Bond Market

Written by Doug Casey ** on 22 May 2026. Posted in Economic Perspective: Doug Casey.

Most investors are watching oil. But ...  They should also be watching the bond market.

Since the war began, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 3.97% to around 4.60%. That’s a serious warning sign.

The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important financial benchmarks in the world. When it rises, borrowing costs rise across the economy—and the U.S. government’s already massive interest bill climbs even higher.

At today’s debt levels, a 63 basis point rise could translate into nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs.

Now add a major oil shock...

  • stock market
  • oil
  • bonds
  • economy
  • US Treasury

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The Next Commodity Bull Market May Not Be Where Wall Street Is Looking

Written by Doug Casey ** on 16 May 2026. Posted in Economic Perspective: Doug Casey.

Editor's Note: The contrarian financial strategy of Chris MacIntosh and his boutique investment firm, Glenorchy Capital (along with his research service, Capitalist Exploits), centers on global macro deep-value investing that targets asymmetric risk-to-reward oppor-tunities. Instead of following mainstream Wall Street trends, the strategy focuses on buying unloved, heavily distressed assets at multi-year lows, and holding them until the broader market capital cycles rotate. Every position is managed with an "asymmetric" lens, seeking risk-to-reward ratios of 3:1 or better (and frequently targeting 3x to 10x returns). Because they buy deeply depressed assets, the floor is structurally insulated, while the ceiling remains exponentially high if a capital rotation occurs.

Wars, sanctions, supply shocks, and years of underinvestment are reshaping the global commodity landscape. Energy, metals, agriculture, and strategic resources are no longer just "cyclical" sectors. They are becoming matters of national security.

Yet many of these markets remain deeply misunderstood, underowned, and ignored by mainstream investors. That is where Chris MacIntosh and Glenorchy Capital focus their attention.

For years, International Man readers have turned to Chris for independent, contrarian analysis—especially in overlooked sectors and countries where the mainstream sees only risk, but disciplined investors may find value.

  • stock market
  • investment
  • national security

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Iran Talks Collapse: Could Oil Hit $200?

Written by Doug Casey on 13 April 2026. Posted in Economic Perspective: Doug Casey.

Iran negotiations have failed.

And that could unleash the biggest oil shock in history.

If that happens, oil could race toward $200 a barrel… or even higher… and stay elevated far longer than Wall Street expects.

The consequences could hit the financial system hard.

  • Stocks could sink.
  • Interest rates could jump.
  • And the bond market could come under serious pressure.

But while chaos hits much of Wall Street, one corner of the market could soar – The energy sector.

  • Iran
  • United States
  • stock market
  • oil

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More Articles …

  1. The Dollar Debasement... Why Socialism Rises, and Wealth Taxes Follow
  2. Comparing the 1930s and Today
  3. Silver Is Breaking Out — Here’s How to Play the Upside
  4. The US Federal Reserve's Quiet War Against the Middle Class
  5. The China Hysteria: Manufactured Threat or Inevitable Rival?
  6. Why the Military-Industrial Complex Always Wins
  7. Silver & Gold as monetary metals
  8. The Endlessness of a Temporary Tax
  9. The Looting of America is Over—Now What?

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