Few serious analysts believe Russia wants a broader war with Europe, but European leaders speak as if it’s only a matter of time. The risks of adopting that mindset are considerable.
Paris, Apr.3.– ‘France is not an island,’ Emmanuel Macron warned on social media on 20 February. ‘It’s about 1,500km from Strasbourg to Ukraine – that’s not very far.’ So first the Russians take the Donbass, and then Alsace? Macron’s alarmist rhetoric probably prompted a wry smile from his defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu. He, like most serious observers, discounts such a scenario: ‘Being a nuclear-armed power logically prevents us from being in the same position as a country without such weapons’.
His predecessor, Hervé Morin, asked in Le Journal du Dimanche on 9 March, ‘Do we really need to cause our fellow citizens disproportionate worry by telling them, in essence, that the ultimate threat to France’s borders is Russia?’
The same question might be asked in Germany, Spain or Italy. But what about further east and around the Baltic? Is a major conflict brewing in the heart of Europe? With few exceptions, European leaders and prominent figures have abandoned the hypotheticals: the Russian army, they maintain, is gearing up for action.
In the event of a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine, Macron told Le Parisien on 1 March, Russia would ‘certainly go on to attack Moldova, and perhaps Romania.’ And Place Publique MEP Raphaël Glucksmann predicted in Le Monde that ‘Russian troops will cross the borders’ into Estonia and Latvia (22 February)...
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