Last August I asked a group of post graduate students, as a case study, their opinion on who will be the next USA president. (
pva-4.blogspot.com
). Also see
pva-31.blogspot.com
A comparison between the results and their estimates is as follows:
BHO MM
Citizens votes (Millions) 61.7 58.5
% - Real 51 %
- Our estimate 51 %
Electoral Votes 332 206
% - Real 61.7
- Our estimate 60
Total Financing ¿? ¿?
The amounts expended by the parties and the press to “forecast results” exceeded 100 millions dollars.
Our total cost was below 1000 euros.
How are forecast calculated?
The political parties (in fact coalitions) and individual candidates use forecast based on surveys, past experiences, recent events and a lot of calculations (on 10 –50 parameters) to anticipate who the citizens will vote in order to establish the best marketing techniques.
Each election, some succeed and other fail. If you succeed two or three times, you will be hired by the parties and the media.
However, most of the time, the results of the debates, last minute information, actions to provoke Islamic terrorist acts or even cases of adultery could change the results in some states.
This year, there is a debate on whether Nate Silver´s formula is correct or just a way to influence citizens to vote democrat candidates.
In our case, the students employed academic models, on those states undecided. These models consider over ten parameters, sometime different from state to state.
We are very happy of our forecasts, however, this experience does not guarantee future results.
CONCLUSION
Normally, a president who is re-elected is free to implement correct regulations, as he will not be judged for the next elections.
Therefore, It is expected that during B Hussein O – Face II time, he will try to correct the problems affecting the USA economy and citizens.
- Unemployment - without increasing the deficit -
- Deficit and balance of payment – Negotiating with China ? -
- Participation in “never ending” distance wars – Avoiding new cases provoked by our business adversaries.
- Efficiency of industry and investigation – Changing the current model of student loans that increase the COST OF POST GRADUATE EDUCATION
- Cut drug consumption - Introducing Olympic anti-doping test on politicians, board members of public companies and even actors who impact on youngsters
- Attack corruption in the administrations and business
Both parties will have to approve next year budget before January first, due to the control of the congress by the republican coalition.
¿Will the politicians of both parties will agree to join forces as a patriotic measurement to avoid the defeat of the USA in this business and financial war?
The USA, other NATO allies and countries are involved in a financial war. The enemies are business adversaries and it looks that they are winning, due to the absolute lack of the political parties to joint forces.
The PR of China will become the biggest
“CAPITALIST” economy in a few years. The new leader has advised that they have to fight “corruption and inefficiency” or the state and the party could be destroyed.
Will we be able to learn the lesson?
In a few month we will know whether our business tycoons and politicians will be able to save our “way of life” or insist in keeping “not realized profits” of their investments.
! We should ask our LORD to illuminate politicians and business tycoons to change their management techniques, avoiding corruption at all levels !
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