What things do Americans vote for?

Do they vote for economic issues? “It’s the economy, stupid,” James Carville, a sharp Democratic adviser, said in 1992 while running Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign. Now he would have said “it’s the culture, stupid,” to satisfy the appetite that American society has for issues that were far less important—abortion, gay marriage, gender identity, which includes the bathroom or toilet being used, and a long etcetera.

The Republicans speak of an imminent catastrophe. And they say, with no other proof than age, that Joe Biden is senile at eighty years old, even if he is only thirty months older than Donald Trump. This way, if the data does not lie, the Republicans would lose the general elections again. Young people are not scared of Biden’s old age. They vote mostly for the Democrats. It is the age group over 55 who is concerned about Alzheimer’s. I am nearly eighty years old, and it seems perfectly legitimate to be concerned. Frankly, it is nonsense that the United States, by far the world’s leading power, ties its most convenient fate to these two old men. Regardless of the “cultural” vision, if there is one aspect that can wrest the presidency of the United States from the Democrats, it is the inflation issue. There is again talk of the Weimar Republic, that democratic republic that began after the dissolution of the German Empire and ended in 1933 with the rise of Nazis to power, because of the memory of the inflation suffered by the Germans, and because of the conditions imposed by the victors.

It is scary. A subway ticket, which in March 1918 was worth 0.10 hundredths of a mark, in 1921 cost 150 million marks. But the worst example was the Hungarian one in 1946. The Hungarians even got paid twice a day (those who were lucky enough to have responsible employers). The afternoon pay used to be double the morning pay. Bills worth trillions were printed. But the most serious contemporary example is the one that did not suffer any aggression, as is the case of Venezuela with Hugo Chávez, its deceased tyrant (he died, apparently, on March 5, 2013, the same day as Stalin, but 60 years later,) and his heir to the throne, the new tyrant, Nicolás Maduro, has ruled ever since. Between them, they managed the counter-miracle of unleashing a hyperinflation of one and a half million percent in the country in 2018, the highest in times of peace. Billions of dollars were stolen. A whole record.

Milton and Rose Friedman’s Free to Choose has the answer to the inflation issue. They begin by alleging the following. Throughout the centuries different human groups have used the strangest objects as if they were money. Figurines of crocodiles, pumpkins, leaves, or smoking grass. Even single lads in tobacco-producing states could hire a “bride” with tobacco leaves that were used to pay the dowry.

You can see it on YouTube. Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1976. Friedman was a fierce guy defending his views. At the same time, he was generous with other economists. For example, Ludwig Erhard, the Minister of Economy of Germany was rebuilding itself closely following the model of the “Social Market Economy” advocated by Erhard, until it created the first economy in Europe. It is called “the German miracle,” but there is nothing extraordinary about that miracle. Just pure common sense: freedom to produce and enjoy the benefits.

The revolution took place in silence, on a Sunday night in 1948. Exactly on June 20, 1948. The next day the Reichsmark was abolished and replaced by the Deutsche Mark. Each German would receive 60 DM and each company was given exactly 60 DM per employee.

Thus began the German revolution. The coin hoarders, usually outlaws, had to work. No more smuggling and theft. Price and wage controls ended. Soon, within days, the demand was greater than the supply and it made sense to work to meet the needs of a hungry and busy population. Erhard was solemnly informed that there would be no coffins to bury the population that would die. He asked if he was responsible for making his own decisions. They said yes. “In that case, all of you are laid off.” Soon “we exported coffins,” he said wryly in his memories. The unwritten rules of capitalism worked.

If there is something in Economics that is well known, it is the control of inflation. It is necessary, according to Friedman, to stop the money printing machine, and only let it work again when the production of goods and services increases and in the same proportion of that increase.

Fortunately, the US is a long way from using Friedman’s advice, and not because it finds it wrong, but because it doesn’t need to. When the Federal Reserve added a quarter of a point to the interest it paid on its sovereign debt, it flushed with foreign currency. In short, the inflation forecast for 2023 is barely 3%. The situation is much better than the usual doomsayers predicted. If not, ask Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.

[©FIRMAS PRESS]