Poor global economic outlook for 2023

Global GDP 2022

All indicators allow us to forecasts global GDP growth of 3% for 2022 and 2% percent for 2023, well below previous years. While a global recession is not in our scenario, the global economy is likely to move even closer to recessionary territory in 2023/2024. The US recession is likely to be induced by aggressive monetary policy and tightening in response to persistently high inflation. The recession in the Euro Area likely will reflect surging energy prices and corresponding reductions in production and demand partially motivated by the Ukrainian war. China may escape an outright recession. Nonetheless, China’s economy will register weak growth in 2023.


Global Economy Cools In October 2022,
Reversing 2022-Q3 Rebound

The Earth's economy cooled in October, reversing what had been a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2022.

That's the assessment of how the pace at which carbon dioxide is being added to the Earth's atmosphere changed during the first month of the fourth quarter of 2022. That change comes as signs that the United States economy, the Eurozone's economy, and China's economy are all showing cracks after they rebounded during the preceding quarter.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart illustrating the rate at which CO₂ is accumulating in the Earth's air shows the results of the rebounds taking place in the world's two largest economies

Because China is the world's largest emitter of CO₂ by a very wide margin, what's happening with its economy plays an outsize role in how much carbon dioxide is added to the Earth's air. During October 2022, China's government ramped up its ongoing COVID-zero lockdowns, seriously disrupting the nation's economy ...

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